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FrontRow · Aug 18, 2026

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The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury has surged to its highest level in nearly two decades, and some strategists see scope for the selloff in long-dated government bonds to go further. The 30-year Treasury yield, which is typically sensitive to geopolitical events, advanced more than 4 basis points to 5.311% on Monday, reaching its highest level since June 2007. Foreign holdings of Treasurys fell in June, the Treasury Department reported on Monday, with top holders U.K., China and Japan all reducing their holdings. "Long-term yields look likely to push up to 5.60%-5.70% and likely move up at a quicker pace than normal given the recent resolution of this three-year triangle pattern," said Fundstrat technical strategist Mark Newton. That comes despite recent U.S. economic data that might normally be expected to push yields lower. July retail sales were the weakest since May 2025, while recent labor-market data has also pointed toward cooling conditions.

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury has surged to its highest level in nearly two decades, and some strategists see scope for the selloff in long-dated government bonds to go further. The 30-year Treasury yield, which is typically sensitive to geopolitical events, advanced more than 4 basis points to 5.311% on Monday, reaching its highest level since June 2007. Foreign holdings of Treasurys fell in June, the Treasury Department reported on Monday, with top holders U.K., China and Japan all reducing their holdings. "Long-term yields look likely to push up to 5.60%-5.70% and likely move up at a quicker pace than normal given the recent resolution of this three-year triangle pattern," said Fundstrat technical strategist Mark Newton. That comes despite recent U.S. economic data that might normally be expected to push yields lower. July retail sales were the weakest since May 2025, while recent labor-market data has also pointed toward cooling conditions.

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