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FrontRow · Oct 26, 2026

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The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October meeting — even as higher energy costs complicate the inflation outlook and put additional pressure on household budgets. The consumer price index, a broad measure of inflation, rose again in September, bringing the annual inflation rate up to 3.7%. Surging oil prices stemming from the U.S. war with Iran also helped drive September's producer price index higher. On Friday, Brent crude oil was trading at a five-month high before falling slightly. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% last month, its first hike since 2023. But Fed funds futures last priced in less than a 10% chance the central bank will hike rates by another quarter point at its meeting this week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Nearly 75% expect at least one hike by year-end. "Inflation is still the No. 1 problem in the U.S. economy, and there are a lot of signs it is getting more broad-based," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "For consumers, it means really high borrowing costs for the foreseeable future."

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October meeting — even as higher energy costs complicate the inflation outlook and put additional pressure on household budgets. The consumer price index, a broad measure of inflation, rose again in September, bringing the annual inflation rate up to 3.7%. Surging oil prices stemming from the U.S. war with Iran also helped drive September's producer price index higher. On Friday, Brent crude oil was trading at a five-month high before falling slightly. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% last month, its first hike since 2023. But Fed funds futures last priced in less than a 10% chance the central bank will hike rates by another quarter point at its meeting this week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Nearly 75% expect at least one hike by year-end. "Inflation is still the No. 1 problem in the U.S. economy, and there are a lot of signs it is getting more broad-based," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "For consumers, it means really high borrowing costs for the foreseeable future."

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