Shea Levin — text status

Brazil’s presidential election is headed to a runoff, with conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro significantly outperforming pre-election polls and leading President Lula as votes are counted. With roughly 85% counted, Bolsonaro has 48.5% of the valid vote, compared to 43.5% for Lula, according to Reuters. The result is a major polling miss after final surveys had Lula narrowly ahead. Datafolha had Lula at 45% to Bolsonaro’s 42%, while Quaest showed a razor-thin 46% to 45% Lula lead. Neither candidate is projected to cross the 50% threshold, setting up a Lula-Bolsonaro runoff on October 25.